February 23, 2023 | By David M. Wagner

Walmart’s website lists 918 different types of ketchup for sale.

Nine hundred eighteen types. Of ketchup. That’s way too many (my girlfriend would argue it’s 918 too many).

Books about change and choice, as well as academic research, confirm that we tend to get overwhelmed and feel lost at sea when faced with too many options – one of several roadblocks to effective decision-making.

Before going further, consider whether there are so many options because you are dealing with multiple issues, masquerading as a singular choice. Start by reducing the complexity of the decision.

Sometimes a Pros/Cons List can identify the strongest alternatives. But for high-consequence choices, or when selecting between options that are good for different reasons, a more formal approach, like a trade study, can help.

A formal decision-making approach is worthwhile when:

• We desire greater transparency and objectivity into the factors that led to a decision.

• We’re concerned about minimizing the influence of biases (that may otherwise lead us to choose what’s most familiar).

• We aren’t yet clear about what’s most important in making a decision.

• Our pros and cons aren’t equivalent (simply counting each column won’t suffice).

• We want to quickly cut down the number of options under consideration.

If you are new to trade studies, here’s how they work (there are variations, but they all follow this pattern):

• Identify and assign weights your decision factors. Consider factors of value added, cost, and risk that differentiate your options. Then pick your “must-haves” – the essential factors an alternative must satisfy to be considered further. Finally, assign a relative weight to the remaining factors, such as on a scale from 1 to 10 (options with weight 10 are ten times more important than factors with weight 1).

• List your options. And start thinking about what differentiates them. Revisit your list of decision factors if needed.

• Evaluate your options. Use your must-have factors to eliminate options that don’t clear the bar. (If there are no options left, it’s time to loosen the reins – what must-haves can you relax?) For the weighted factors, assign a score, such as from 0 (couldn’t be worse) to 10 (couldn’t do better).

• Calculate overall scores and compare. For options that satisfied your must-have factors, multiply the score for each criterion by that factor’s weight and add them up. How do the options compare? Are there any surprises? Do you need to revisit the factors or weights to further distinguish a few finalists?

Some trial-and-error might be necessary to adjust the factor weights until the scores make sense. Don’t underestimate the value of your intuition here.

This techniques will help you chart a manageable course through a sea of options so that you don’t feel overwhelmed anymore. And if you need a guide through the process, set up a meeting with us to talk about how we can help.